Funktionale Dynamik von Technologischen Innovationssystemen im Bereich der Erneuerbaren Energietechnologien. Das Beispiel der weltweiten Durchsetzung von batteriebetriebenen Fahrzeugen und Plug-in-Hybridfahrzeugen

Abstract

Electric mobility received a new boost with the recent turn of the millennium, when mankind realized that the progressing climate change is attributable to the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2), which is also emitted through traffic worldwide. Within the traffic sector, CO2 emissions through road mobility increased in particular, which is why the focus is on electric vehicles and especially on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the realization of electric mobility, electrochemical energy storage is being considered a key technology primarily because of their significant contribution to value creation, for which reason an international competition has begun in order to secure large market shares as early as possible. As to the methodology for analysis which countries worldwide have the best prerequisites for this competition, the fundamentals of technological innovation systems (TIS) in the field of renewable energy technologies have been chosen, documented and discussed in detail. The TIS-approach developed evolutionary across different approaches of innovation system research and today allows not only for a functional analysis of TIS, but also offers a phase model for TIS development that is being discussed and revised in the present dissertation. An investigation of relevant case studies in renewable energy technologies according to the three criteria hypothesis, result and lesson learned allowed to derive best practices for the following, detailed comparative innovation system analysis. A comprehensive roadmapping until the year 2030 shows that technological development paths are available, which application variety and market development can be expected and which specific challenges have to be solved in order to reconcile technological progress with market-related demand. Hence, against this background, the TIS revolving around energy storage for electric mobility on battery system level and before the integration into specific vehicle concepts respectively in Germany in the context of the European Union has been analyzed and compared with the TIS in the countries China, Japan, Korea, the USA and France in this dissertation. These six countries have been determined as leading as a result of a patent analysis, whereby after initial leadership by the USA in the 80's, in particular Japan is today by far the undisputed technology leader. The analysis started with significant structural components and therewith the energy storage industry/battery manufacturers. The automobile industry and electric vehicle manufacturers respectively have been analyzed, too, separated into PHEV and BEV manufacturing companies. With the three companies Toyota Motor Corp. (from the pioneer and innovation leader in hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) to the pioneer and innovation leader in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV)), Tesla Inc. (from attacker to world market leader in BEV) and the BMW Group (Plug-in-hybridization of the product range on the way to the premium manufacturer of BEV), three entirely different business strategies have been analyzed in detailed case studies. Further structural components like networks and non-technical institutions/framework conditions were also taken into account during the analysis. Subsequently, the functional pattern of the TIS in the six leading countries has been analyzed, along the seven key processes and functions respectively of the influence on the direction of search, knowledge development, entrepreneurial experimentation, knowledge diffusion/development of positive externalities, legitimation, resource mobilization and market formation. Overall, a big lead by the Asian countries follows from the investigation results and especially Japan ahead of China and Korea, ahead of the USA, France and Germany that becomes smaller but has still not been caught up yet. In conclusion, the functionality of the TIS surrounding energy storage for electric mobility in Germany has been evaluated, which is in a formative phase and therewith on one level with the neighbor country France and the USA. From the strengths and weaknesses, the inducing and blocking key factors of the TIS surrounding energy storage for electric mobility were derived and shown as drivers and blockages. From this, political key questions resulted, which need to be answered regarding the further positioning of the German automotive industry for electric mobility in general and electrochemical energy storage technologies in particular.