Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation
Abstract
Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios. ; JJC and NB were supported by funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's H2020/ERC grant agreement no. 679651 (ConFooBio). HH was supported by ERC grant no. 694640 (ViEWS), ZBH by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L002558/1), and SCT by scholarships from CONACYT and the Foley-Béjar fund at Balliol College. ; Peer reviewed
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