Impact of Lockdowns and Winter Temperatures on Natural Gas Consumption in Europe

Abstract

International audience ; Natural gas use accounts for ≈38% of the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in Europe, including the EU27 and UK (Eurostat, 2021). The share of this fossil fuel in the energy mix has been growing since 1990 at the expense of oil and coal, as it is viewed as a cleaner source of energy (IEA, 2021). The main sectors using natural gas are the built environment (residential, public and commercial buildings), the industry, and the electricity production (Eurostat, 2021). In addition to steadily growing natural gas use, the COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted economic activities and the energy demand, beginning in early March of 2020. Specifically, the government policies restricted mobility and confined people at home during "lockdowns", and reduced or closed industrial and non-essential commercial activities, with impacts on gas use and pertaining CO 2 emissions. Although such impacts have been noted by recent reports (IEA, 2020a, 2020b), they have not yet been quantified and analyzed in detail. During the cold season period when the pandemic arrived in Europe, natural gas consumption is typically high due to the heating demand in the built environment, which represents 52% of the total gas consumption from all-sectors averaged over January to June. For both residential and commercial buildings, gas consumption is typically inversely proportional to daily air temperature when temperatures fall below a comfort threshold "critical