Periodic Report D0.3 PRIMA collaborative project, EU 7th Framework Programme, contract no. 212345

Abstract

Facing structural change, European rural areas still fulfil multiple social, economic and ecological functions. Because of scale interplays and sustainability trade-offs, their future dynamics are yet particularly difficult to ascertain. PRIMA aims to develop methods for scaling down the assessment of policy impacts on multifunctional land-use and economic activities. The project focuses on agriculture, forestry, tourism, and ecosystem services, with special attention to the structural effects of the policies. An analysis of the strategic and planning documents in the case study areas highlights that many measures are targeted to several pillars of sustainable development, even though multifunctionality (MF) concept is often unaddressed. Because of the bottom-up governance of the European cohesion policy, a large variety of priorities and measures has been observed, so we oriented the first stakeholders interviews towards their major objectives and the specific measures they activate from the cohesion policy to reach their own objectives. Two groups of stakeholders were identified: those who can assist in scenario and model development and in model validation (drawn from the institutions which implement policy), and the actors who may be affected by the policy and whose behaviour will be captured in the AB model. Two rounds of interviews have been performed, the first one to gain contextual information about the wider case study information. From cluster analysis and this information, sets of municipalities were selected, then a second round of interviews was conducted to identify relevant policy issues and appropriate policy measures. These interviews provide the main events which have occurred during the last 20 years, policy outcomes, the EU funding streams, proposals for new measures. A conceptual model has been developed from extensive literature review and information collected during the surveys. This model focuses on the population dynamics in rural municipalities and on the decision making behaviours ...