Effect of parity weighting on milk production forecast models
In: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Band 157, S. 589-603
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In: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Band 157, S. 589-603
International audience ; Determining the effect of a change in management on farm with differing characteristics is a significant challenge in the evaluation of dairy systems due to the interacting components of complex biological systems. In Ireland, milk production is increasing substantially following the abolition of the European Union milk quota regime in 2015. There are 2 main ways to increase the milk production on farm (within a fixed land base): either increase the number of animals (thus increasing the stocking rate) or increase the milk production per animal through increased feeding or increased lactation length. In this study, the effect of increased concentrate feeding or an increase in grazing intensity was simulated to determine the effect on the farm system and its economic performance. Four stocking rates (2.3, 2.6, 2.9, and 3.2 cow/ha) and 5 different concentrate supplementation strategies (0, 180, 360, 600, and 900 kg of dry matter/lactation) resulting in 20 different scenarios were evaluated across different milk, concentrate, and silage purchase prices. Each simulation was run across 10 yr of meteorological data, which had been recorded over the period 2004 to 2013. Three models-the Moorepark and St Gilles grass growth model, the pasture-based herd dynamic milk model, and the Moorepark dairy systems model-were integrated and applied to simulate the different scenarios. Overall, this study has demonstrated that the most profitable scenario was a stocking rate of 2.6 cow/ha with a concentrate supplementation of 600 kg of dry matter/cow. The factor that had the greatest influence on profitability was variability of milk price.
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In: Journal of Dairy Science 1 (101), 614–623. (2018)
Determining the effect of a change in management on farm with differing characteristics is a significant challenge in the evaluation of dairy systems due to the interacting components of complex biological systems. In Ireland, milk production is increasing substantially following the abolition of the European Union milk quota regime in 2015. There are 2 main ways to increase the milk production on farm (within a fixed land base): either increase the number of animals (thus increasing the stocking rate) or increase the milk production per animal through increased feeding or increased lactation length. In this study, the effect of increased concentrate feeding or an increase in grazing intensity was simulated to determine the effect on the farm system and its economic performance. Four stocking rates (2.3, 2.6, 2.9, and 3.2 cow/ha) and 5 different concentrate supplementation strategies (0, 180, 360, 600, and 900 kg of dry matter/lactation) resulting in 20 different scenarios were evaluated across different milk, concentrate, and silage purchase prices. Each simulation was run across 10 yr of meteorological data, which had been recorded over the period 2004 to 2013. Three models-the Moorepark and St Gilles grass growth model, the pasture-based herd dynamic milk model, and the Moorepark dairy systems model-were integrated and applied to simulate the different scenarios. Overall, this study has demonstrated that the most profitable scenario was a stocking rate of 2.6 cow/ha with a concentrate supplementation of 600 kg of dry matter/cow. The factor that had the greatest influence on profitability was variability of milk price.
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In: Computers and electronics in agriculture: COMPAG online ; an international journal, Band 221, S. 108977
ISSN: 1872-7107
In: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Band 192, S. 106610
Developing efficient policy instruments and incentive schemes to promote the uptake of greenhouse gas mitigation measures requires some kind of prioritisation of the mitigation measures. An important consideration in this process is the estimated cost and costefficiency the measures. The high number of reports done in developed countries show a high variability in the country-level cost-effectiveness estimates, and suggest that approaches providing higher granularity at the spatial and farm type could suit better to the purpose of regional policy development. At the same time, there is still a gap in our understanding of economic mitigation potential of agriculture in developing and newly industrialised countries.To address these questions this report presents three studies. The first is a literature review of the cost-effectiveness estimates of mitigation measures published in the past 15 years, discussing the variability in these estimates. The second study reports on marginal abatement cost curves for beef cattle production in Brazil. Finally, the last report presents the conceptual basis of a tool to assess the financial implications of the mitigation measures to be used in parallel with the FarmAC model, ultimately providing mitigation measure costeffectiveness estimates specific to individual farms. Additionally, it describes the selection of mitigation measures which have been assessed at the farm level in Component 3 of the AnimalChange project.
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