Suchergebnisse

The tobacco epidemic is one of the biggest public health problems in the world. Based on the data from WHO, Tobacco kills nearly 6 million people a year around the world. Monitoring tracks of smokers' growth population can be important things for the government to find the best implement policies to overcome this problem. This paper presents a smoker's growth model with uncertainty in the transmission and recovery rate. In classical smoker's growth model, the transmission and recovery rate assumed to be constant. However, in reality, the age of the population is heterogeneous, and the transmission among the population may depend on the age of the smoker. Therefore, in this paper, the transmission and recovery rate of smokers' growth model depends on the age of smokers. We divide the transmission and recovery rate into three categories based on age: Children (0-10), Adolescent (10-30), Adult (30-60). The uncertainty of transmission and recovery rate in this model represented by a triangular fuzzy number. The most important things in the model are the basic reproduction number. A basic reproduction number is an indicator of when the endemic case will occur. Therefore, the main focus of this paper is to determine the basic reproduction number of fuzzy smokers growth models using the fuzzy expected value concept. The result is the basic reproduction number of the fuzzy model is an interval. This may can be used as an upper and lower limit of the basic reproduction number

The Theory of Fuzzy Optimal and Approximate Social Prices.- The Theory of Optimal Social Discount Rate.- The Theoretical Structure of Cost-Benefit Criteria, Choice of Project and Discounting Process.- The Theory of Fuzzy Present Value (FPV).- The Theory of Fuzzy Decisions, Optimal Taxation and Cost-Benefit Distribution.- Toward a Theory of Social Goals and Objective Formation in Cost-Benefit Analysis

Der Value at Risk ist die am stärksten verbreitete Kennzahl zur Bestimmung des Risikos bei Finanzinstituten. Für diese gibt es bezüglich Theorie, Simulation und empirischer Anwendung bereits ein breites Spektrum an Literatur. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Methoden zur Schätzung des Value at Risk gegenübergestellt und bezüglich ihrer Performance untereinander verglichen. Zusätzlich zum Value at Risk wird der Expected Shortfall als mögliche Alternative aufgeführt. Der wesentliche Fokus liegt zum einen auf dem Vergleich von bedingten Methoden mit und ohne vorherige Filterung von Daten. Zum anderen soll die Frage beantwortet werden, ob bedingte oder unbedingte Methoden für die Schätzung der Risikomaße zu favorisieren sind. Auf Basis der in dieser Arbeit durchgeführten Simulations- und empirischen Studien wird gezeigt, dass die Filterung von Daten einen nicht zu verachtenden Mehrwert erzielt. Nach einer adäquaten Filterung liefern sowohl Extremwertmodelle als auch nichtparametrische Modelle gute Ergebnisse. In der empirischen Studie stellen sich die bedingten Methoden als vorteilhaft heraus.

In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes. Contents Risk measures and their properties Elicitability Backtesting (VaR and ES) Empirical Analysis MATLAB code Target Groups Researchers and Students in Economics and Finance Practitioners in Risk Management The Author Simona Roccioletti obtained her Master of Arts degree in Quantitative Asset and Risk Management at the University of Applied Sciences (bfi) Vienna, Austria.