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We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)

This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. (JEL E32, E62, H20, N12)

We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in cyclical volatility observed in the G7. Since World War II, these countries have experienced dramatic demographic changes, although details regarding timing and nature differ across countries. We exploit this variation to show that the workforce age composition has a large and significant effect on cyclical volatility. We relate our results to the recent decline in US macroeconomic volatility, finding that demographic change accounts for approximately one-fifth to one-third of this moderation. (JEL E32, J11)

I estimate a decomposition of productivity and hours into technology and non-technology components. Two results stand out: (a) the estimated conditional correlations of hours and productivity are negative for technology shocks, positive for nontechnology shocks; (b) hours show a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock. Most of the results hold for a variety of model specifications, and for the majority of G7 countries. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with a conventional real-business-cycle interpretation of business cycles, but is shown to be consistent with a simple model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices. (JEL E32, E24)

This article examines the quantitative interrelations between sectoral composition of public spending and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a two-sector real business cycle model with positive productive externalities in investment. When government purchases of consumption and investment goods are set as constant fractions of their respective sectoral output, we show that the public-consumption share plays no role in the model's local dynamics, and that a sufficiently high public-investment share can stabilize the economy against endogenous belief-driven cyclical fluctuations. When each type of government spending is postulated as a constant proportion of the economy's total output, we find that there exists a trade-off between public consumption versus investment expenditures to yield saddle-path stability and equilibrium uniqueness. (JEL E32, E62, O41).

We present a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model of self-fulfilling bank runs, where banks trade capital in competitive and liquid markets but remain vulnerable to runs due to a loss of creditor confidence. We characterize how the vulnerability of an individual bank depends on its leverage position and the economy-wide asset prices. We study the effect of credit easing policies, in the form of asset purchases. When a banking crisis is generated by runs, credit easing can reduce the number of defaulting banks and enhance welfare. When the crisis is driven by fundamentals, credit easing may have adverse consequences. (JEL E32, E44, E58, G01, G21, G28, G33)

How does a housing boom affect credit to non-housing firms? Using bank, firm, and loan-level microdata, we show that the Spanish housing boom reduced non-housing credit growth during its first years, but stimulated it later on. These patterns can be rationalized by financial constraints for banks. Constrained banks initially accommodated higher housing credit demand by reducing non-housing credit. Eventually, however, the housing boom increased bank net worth and expanded credit supply. A quantitative model, disciplined by our cross-sectional estimates, indicates that the crowding-out effect was substantial but temporary, and had been fully absorbed by the end of the boom. (JEL E32, E44, G21, R21, R31)

We estimate the magnitudes of reduced earnings, work hours, and wage rates of workers displaced during the Great Recession using linked employer-employee panel data from Washington state. Displaced workers' earnings losses occurred mainly because hourly wage rates dropped at the time of displacement and recovered sluggishly. Lost employer-specific premiums explain only 17 percent of these losses. Fully 70 percent of displaced workers moved to employers paying the same or higher wage premiums than the displacing employers, but these workers nevertheless suffered substantial wage rate losses. Loss of valuable specific worker-employer matches explains more than one-half of the wage losses. (JEL E32, J22, J31, J63, R23)

We study how monetary policy in China influences banks' shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993). This development, along with two newly constructed micro banking datasets, enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Contractionary monetary policy during 2009–2015 caused shadow banking loans to rise rapidly, offsetting the expected decline of traditional bank loans and hampering the effectiveness of monetary policy on total bank credit. We advance a theoretical explanation of our empirical findings. (JEL E32, E52, G21, O16, O23, P24, P34)

A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate this problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in debt contracts. In the event of default, creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent (the "absolute priority" or "first-in-time" rule). In this paper, we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule suited to sovereign debts contracts and analyze its positive and normative implications within a quantitatively realistic model of sovereign debt and default. (JEL E32, E44, F34, G15, H63, O16, O19)

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit. Monetary policy affects both loan supply and demand, thus making identification a steep challenge. We therefore analyze a novel, supervisory dataset with loan applications from Spain. Accounting for time-varying firm heterogeneity in loan demand, we find that tighter monetary and worse economic conditions substantially reduce loan granting, especially from banks with lower capital or liquidity ratios; responding to applications for the same loan, weak banks are less likely to grant the loan. Finally, firms cannot offset the resultant credit restriction by applying to other banks. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G21, G32)

The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. JEL: E32, E44, E52, G01, N10, N20

The authors find evidence that a public housing privatization program produced adverse effects on housing transactions and the economy in Hong Kong. A scheme announced in December 1997, offering tenants an opportunity to buy their units at deeply discounted prices, reduced public housing tenants' bids for private homes and adversely affected home transactions. This effect is more pronounced than the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis. An effect on housing prices is also indirectly shown though a demonstration that a structural break in the housing price relationship occurred at the time the privatization program was introduced. Declines in housing prices further eroded employment and set off a vicious circle. (JEL E32, R21, R31)

Cet article propose une datation trimestrielle de référence des périodes de récession et d'expansion de l'économie française depuis 1970, réalisée par le comité de datation des cycles de l'Association française de science économique. La méthodologie repose sur deux piliers : 1) des estimations économétriques pour identifier les périodes candidates et 2) une approche narrative détaillant le contexte économique de l'époque pour finaliser la datation. De 1970 à 2019, quatre périodes de récession économique sont identifiées : les chocs pétroliers de 1974-1975 et 1980, le cycle d'investissement de 1992-1993 et la grande récession de 2008-2009. Pour la récession Covid, le pic est daté au dernier trimestre 2019 et le creux au deuxième trimestre 2020. Classification JEL : E32, E37, C24, N14.

Regional shocks are an important feature of the US economy. Households' ability to self-insure against these shocks depends on how they affect local interest rates. In the United States, most borrowing occurs through the mortgage market and is influenced by the presence of government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). We establish that despite large regional variation in predictable default risk, GSE mortgage rates for otherwise identical loans do not vary spatially. In contrast, the private market does set interest rates which vary with local risk. We use a spatial model of collateralized borrowing to show that the national interest rate policy substantially affects welfare by redistributing resources across regions. (JEL E32, E43, G21, G28, L32, R11, R31)