Wann ist ein Listenplatz sicher? Eine Untersuchung der Bundestagswahlen 1953 bis 2002

In: Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen: ZParl, Band 40, Heft 3, S. 603-620

Abstract

For all national German elections since 1953 and for each position on one of the parties' state lists the probability to get elected into parliament is calculated. Identifying safe list positions allows us to analyze parties' nomination strategies. Given that the large majority of all Members of Parliament run both on a list and in a district, we can investigate how parties combine (un)safe districts with (un)safe list positions. Thereby insight is gained into the relative attractiveness of list- versus district-candidatures, into the potential for parliamentary 'role differentiation' between list- and district-candidates and into the effectiveness of the basic democratic sanctioning mechanism -- voting representatives out of office. Adapted from the source document.