Suburban crisis? Demand for single family homes in the face of demographic change

In: Europa Regional, Band 17.2009, Heft 1, S. 2-14

Abstract

In the former Western German states, a third of the single- or two-family houses – 22 percent of all dwellings – was built in the years from
1949 to 1978. Considering the lifecycle of this housing stock and current socio-demographic trends, the viability of affected neighbourhoods
looks uncertain. Demographic processes like aging and population decline are well underway, albeit with some spatial variance. On top of
the reduced demand for single homes caused by these processes, societal changes are also leading to new lifestyles that affect housing choice.
Household structures are adapting to more diverse ways of living in today's society. The corresponding housing preferences have triggered an
increased demand for urban living space, with a tendency towards concentrations around Germany's economic hotspots.
Neighbourhoods in regions of unfavourable demographic and economic conditions are facing these risks with particular signifi cance. At the
same time, problematic stocks area also present in certain sub-areas or municipalities of generally successful regions. On a local scale, there
will be communities that benefi t from these developments and others that will be negatively affected. On the regional and national scale, we
expect islands of growth within shrinking regions, and vice versa. It is foreseeable that not only economically disadvantaged, but also above
average performers will have to deal with diffi cult market conditions for an ever increasing vacant housing stock. Adverse settings like unsuitable
locations, defi ciencies in the structure, or excessive energy consumption of buildings, as well as the negative perception of a neighbourhood
can add up to a compound of problems for an area. The worst case scenario would be a downward spiral of vacancies and abandonment,
devaluation, deterioration and decline of an area – development paths that have so far been unheard of in the context of the single family home
sector in Germany.
Our contribution starts off by conceptualizing the research matter: the social, demographic and economic root causes of the developments
described above and the foreseeable consequences. For this purpose, we analyze the building and dwellings databases of the Federal Statistics
Offi ces, and provide an overview over the magnitude and geographical extent of potentially affected housing stocks. An analysis of the present
national housing stock provides the starting point for indicator-based modeling of risk areas on the municipal level in selected states. Finally,
we raise the question on how to address these issues and conclude with some deliberations about possible strategies for urban renewal in peripheral
single family home areas.