Determinants of conflict-related sexual violence: a meta-reanalysis distinguishing two classes of zero observations

In: International studies quarterly: the journal of the International Studies Association

Abstract

Existing databases on conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) feature a disproportionate number of "zero" observations, which conflate a true absence of CRSV with an unknown presence of CRSV. Empirical studies model such zeros as solely indicating a lack of CRSV, thereby obscuring what needs to be known about its determinants and patterns. In this article, I present a comprehensive meta-reanalysis of quantitative CRSV studies that have disregarded the two-fold nature of excessive zeros in their data. To redress this neglect, I differentiate the two types of zeros probabilistically and then estimate the prevalence of CRSV conditional on the statistical partitioning of its two zero types. My meta-reanalysis refines previous findings, restoring confidence in intuitive theoretical expectations and resolving inconclusive and unexpected results in the field. It also dispels potential misconceptions by providing alternative evidence and explanations. Overall, distinguishing the two classes of zeros in estimation yields more informed results, making substantial contributions to scholarly understanding of CRSV while avoiding spurious confirmations and disconfirmations.