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Abstract
This book explains changes to Iranian grand strategy over the past four decades, and it does so by advancing a multicausal model that unifies the three main paradigms of International Relations (IR) theory. Hence, ideas (constructivism) mediate between the structure of material capabilities (realism) and agents (liberalism) and interact with each to produce, respectively, threat perception and political preferences. Using these two explanatory factors, the author demonstrates how the Islamic Republics grand strategy has systematically varied over time to produce a mix of outcomes that includes balancing, expansionism, bandwagoning, appeasement, engagement and retrenchment. Beyond its theoretical contribution, this book is policy-relevant in that it explains and predicts the external conduct of what is arguably the Middle Easts most consequential actor, with implications reverberating far beyond the region. Academic in conception and rigor, the book is intended not only for specialists and practitioners but appeals to the lay reader interested in the broader Middle East/West Asia, the regions relationship with major powers, and regional conflict dynamics. Dr. Kevjn Lim is Middle East and North Africa principal research analyst, and Iran country risk lead at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Introduction: The riddle of Iran's external conduct -- Chapter One – Towards a dynamic-integrative model of grand strategic adjustments -- Chapter Two – The theoretical model in context -- Chapter Three – After the Big Bang: revolution, war, and elusive victories, 1979-88 -- Chapter Four – Sobering up and adjusting course, 1989-91 -- Chapter Five – More looming threats, 1991-97 -- Chapter Six – Resurrected engagement, 1997-2001 -- Chapter Seven – Ambiguous embrace, 2001-05 -- Chapter Eight – Resurgent revisionism and the path to confrontation -- Chapter Nine – Precarious under pressure, 2009-13 -- Chapter Ten – Averting one war, igniting another, 2013-17 -- Conclusion: Iranian grand strategy between crusade and crisis.
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Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Abbreviations -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction: The Riddle of Iran's External Conduct -- 1.1 What's Been Written and How This Book Contributes -- 1.2 The Book's Layout -- References -- 2 Toward a Dynamic-Integrative Model of Grand Strategic Adjustments -- 2.1 Defining the Domain of Grand Strategy -- 2.2 Competing IR Theories and Why They Fall Short -- 2.3 A Theoretical Alternative -- 2.4 The Dynamic-Integrative Model of Grand Strategic Adjustments -- 2.5 Research Design and Case Selection -- References -- 3 The Theoretical Model in Context -- 3.1 The Dilemma of Measuring Relative Power -- 3.2 The Ideational Microfoundations of Threat Perception and Political Preferences -- National Identity: 'Iranianness' -- National Identity: Shi'a Islam and the Rise of Iran's Clergy -- Regime Ideology -- Role Conception -- Threat Perceptions -- Interests as Causal Bridge to Behavior -- 3.3 The Evolution of Domestic Politics and Preferences -- The 1980s: Radicals vs. Conservatives -- The 1990s: Traditional Conservatives, Centrists, and Radicals-Turned-Reformists -- The 2000s: Neoconservatives, Traditional Conservatives, Centrists, and Reformists -- The 2010s: Pragmatic vs. Traditional Conservatives -- 3.4 Grand Strategic Adjustments in Three Orders -- Soft Expansionism (Influence) -- Engagement -- Balancing and Hard Expansionism -- Subversion -- Appeasement and Bandwagoning -- Retrenchment and Diversionary Posturing -- References -- 4 After the Big Bang: Revolution, War, and Elusive Victories, 1979-1988 -- References -- 5 Sobering Up and Adjusting Course, 1989-1991 -- 5.1 Economic Reconstruction and the Rationalization of Government -- 5.2 Engagement with the GCC Monarchies, Industrialized States, and Major Powers -- 5.3 Military Rehabilitation, Modernization, and Indigenization.
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