Looking for a Few Good Men: Predicting Patterns of Retention, Promotion, and Accession of Minority and Women Officers

In: The American journal of economics and sociology, Band 51, Heft 4, S. 435-458

Abstract

Abstract. The extent to which differences exist across race/ethnicity, sex and service group in rates of retention and promotion of military officers is examined. Three separate statistical models capture differences in the possible effects of race/ethnicity on variation in retention and promotion rates. Ordinary least squares regression (OLS) was used to estimate the models employing cohort data from the period 1979–1988. All analyses were performed separately for men and women. The models exhibited greater explanatory power for men than for women. The empirical results were used to develop predictions of the numbers of individuals that will be retained from each cohort during the next decade. Predicted distributions of officers across grades were also generated for each cohort. Results indicate that while retention rates for minorities appear high, little change in the demographic composition of higher grades is likely if current recruitment, and promotion practices continue. Thus, programs designed to increase the numbers of women and ethnic minorities in the officer corps should focus on recruitment rather than retention. Lastly, recommendations for future research to expand and support these preliminary analyses are presented.