Technology forecasting for residential energy management devices

In: Foresight, Band 13, Heft 6, S. 70-87

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to forecast the performance and adoption of residential energy management technology (REMT).Design/methodology/approachThe paper integrates scenarios, analogy and Bass diffusion model.FindingsFour different scenarios were identified. Bass curve parameters were extracted through many different existing devices, and then fit into each scenario subjectively to produce four different kinds of diffusion curves.Originality/valueThe approach and the model provide decision and policy makers to evaluate how they should position new energy management innovations based on the desired type of diffusion.