TY  - undefined
TI  - Intense rivalries mark NW LA legislative tilts
AU  - Jeff Sadow
PY  - 2023
AB  - Reapportionment shook up Caddo and Bossier Parish<br />representation in the Louisiana Legislature, setting up for some new faces, refugees<br />from other local offices, and intense clashes on this fall's ballot.<br /><br />The area's overall declining population rearranged<br />things considerably. Which boundaries are coming and going will create some<br />interesting dynamics.<br /><br />In the House of Representatives, District 1 won<br />last time for his first term by Republican Danny<br />McCormick, retreated from Bossier Parish to become a completely Caddo-based<br />entity. He will again face Republican Randall Liles in a race that<br />could be closer than last time. Although McCormick eked out a general election<br />win without runoff, he ran six percentage points better in Bossier than Caddo.<br />Still, the foothold he has established over the past four years and votes reflecting<br />the district's ideological tilt should be enough to reelect him.<br /><br />The Bossier precincts largely transfer into<br />District 10, the Webster Parish-based district held by an unopposed Republican<br />Wayne McMahen. The district him for currently has Bossier's most southern<br />precinct as a footnote, but starting in 2024 his Bossier portion swings north<br />and grows substantially.<br /><br />The other district within Bossier that largely was<br />an afterthought, the Caddo-based District 2 currently held by the leader of<br />Democrats' House caucus Sam Jenkins, expanded somewhat around old Bossier City.<br />Jenkins will try for the Senate District 39 seat of term-limited Democrat Greg<br />Tarver, and in his place Democrat Caddo School Board Member Terence Vinson will<br />make his second try for the seat in eight years. He is joined by Democrat Caddo<br />Parish Commissioner Steven Jackson.<br /><br />Vinson's familiarity with the district should<br />help, but his main asset is the quite erratic and controversial tenure that Jackson<br />has had in office. In Bossier, Jackson committed his most recent and biggest<br />folly, convicted<br />for impersonating a police officer, which should just add to fodder that<br />ends Jackson's political career.<br /><br />Joining Jenkins in pursuit of a Senate seat is<br />District 4 Democrat Cedric Glover. That House territory open, school board<br />member Democrat Jasmine Green, term-limited Democrat commissioner Lyndon<br />Johnson, and former District 3 candidate Democrat Joy Walters, who in 2019 lost narrowly<br />to Democrat Tammy Phelps, who didn't draw an opponent this year, when she lived<br />in that district. This could go in any direction, likely to the candidate who most<br />convincingly runs to the far left ideologically while conveying an ability to<br />bring home the bacon.<br /><br />District 5 shifted eastward, still containing southeastern<br />Caddo but with much of it now outside the parish, the plurality of that in southern<br />Bossier and the remainder scattered well south into Red River Parish. Former<br />Bossier Parish School Board Member Republican Dennis Bamburg played his cards<br />right to become only one of three rookies to enter the House next year without<br />drawing any opposition.<br /><br />While that district entered Bossier, District 6<br />exited it and will pick up a new representative as GOP state Rep. Thomas Pressly will gun for Senate District<br />38 that moved over to grab east Shreveport. Michael Melerine, present Board of<br />Elementary and Secondary Education member, also will take part in musical chairs<br />by running for this spot. He is a big favorite against no party public defender<br />Evan McMichael and Democrat theater<br />manager and activist Robert Darrow.<br /><br />In recent years, the traditional afterthought House<br />district in Caddo has been District 7, as most of it is in rural parishes to<br />the south. GOP incumbent Larry Bagley<br />is heavily favored to retain that seat for a final term. In Bossier, the<br />boundaries shoved a bit north, District 8 Republican Raymond Crews faces no opposition for<br />another term.<br /><br />As<br />previously noted, district boundary changes and Bossier political<br />establishment annoyance will create a rugged reelection battle for Republican Dodie Horton to secure a final term. She<br />squares off against businessman Chris<br />Turner, the establishment's pick. Her solid conservative legislative record<br />might be enough to hold him off.<br /><br />The reconfigured Senate District 38, open as<br />incumbent Barry Milligan declined to run for a second term, that drew in Pressly<br />managed to retain former Democrat now Republican former seat holder John Milkovich.<br />Voters after one term grew sour on his taste<br />for big government in particular and Milligan handily defeated him last<br />time. Pressly is favored over him and also banker but previously political<br />operative Republican Chase<br />Jennings.<br /><br />Spanning both parishes with a little presence in<br />Bossier, the District 39 race that attracted Glover and Jenkins also brought<br />back Democrat former state Rep. Barbara Norton, who tried to contest Tarver<br />last time but who<br />ran afoul of the residency requirement. With all three having tasted success<br />in running in parts of the district, this also will be a contest where the winning<br />candidate most convincingly runs to the left and shows an ability to pile up<br />the pork. Making things even more interesting, perennial GOP candidate Jim<br />Slagle is back, with his impact uncertain on who will make the runoff, or even<br />against him. However, Glover's track record also as Shreveport mayor perhaps<br />gives him a slight edge.<br /><br />Perhaps receiving the award for most far-flung district<br />touching multiple parishes, the plurality of new District 31's residents lie in<br />Bossier and Caddo, washing over the southern reaches of each. As in the case of<br />House District 9 but for somewhat different reasons, this turned out as a battle<br />of the Bossier political establishment, if not of the rump grouping of white northwest<br />Louisiana Democrats whose power steadily has faded, against conservative insurgents. As previously noted, establishment forces back retired basketball coach Republican Mike McConathy while insurgents are<br />behind one of the Legislature's most prominent disruptors of traditional<br />liberal populism, term-limited Republican state Rep. Alan Seabaugh in a race sure to be close.<br />Again, a long legislative conservative record may allow Seabaugh to move into<br />the upper chamber.<br /><br />Finally, as<br />previously noted another contest in which the establishment has a vested<br />interest occurs in District 36, which has migrated south and mostly out of<br />Webster Parish. Republican incumbent Robert<br />Mills, who beat an establishment incumbent last time that spent the most money<br />on a legislative race in history, takes on another establishment favorite in<br />the form of Republican Bossier Parish School Board Member Adam Bass. Mills has run into difficulty<br />among area conservatives by not backing an effort to hold the line on spending<br />hundreds of millions more dollars on capital outlay this past year, and this<br />disgruntlement presented an opportunity for the establishment to jump on him.<br />Mills will have to hope an otherwise solidly conservative voting record carries<br />him to victory.
UR  - https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/08/intense-rivalries-mark-nw-la.html
T2  - Between The Lines
UR  - https://www.pollux-fid.de/r/blog_entry-f83dfbd1321e81b8c696579471e92aa2
H1  - Pollux (Fachinformationsdienst Politikwissenschaft)
ER  -