Keeping Low Reproductive Number Despite the Rebound Population Mobility in Korea, a Country Never under Lockdown during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Nonpharmaceutical intervention has been one of the most important strategies to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 in the communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Korea has a unique experience that we had the first large outbreak during the early pandemic and could flatten the epidemic curve without lockdown. In this study, the effective reproductive numbers were calculated for the entire nation and Seoul (the capital city) Metropolitan Area from February 16–15 July, where 60% of the population reside. We compared the changes in population mobility data and reproductive number trends according to the changes in the government's nonpharmaceutical intervention strategy. The total daily mobility decreased when Korea had the first wave of a large outbreak in February–March 2020, which was mainly caused by the decrease of daily noncommuting mobility. However, daily commuting mobility from 16 February to 30 June 2020 was maintained at a similar level since there was no national lockdown for workers who commute between home and work. During the first half-year of 2020, Korea could control the outbreak to a manageable level without a significant decrease in daily public mobility. However, it may be only possible when the public follows personal hygiene principles and social distancing without crisis fatigue or reduced compliance.