Changes in fiscal risk against natural disasters due to Covid-19

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic caused serious social and economic impacts around the world. Governments implemented massive fiscal stimulus and protection packages to counteract these severe consequences which lead them into weak fiscal positions and elevated debt. This affects the fiscal risk to natural hazards governments are exposed to as well. To shed light on this issue we compare fiscal risk due to natural disaster events pre-Covid and for today to indicate the magnitude of change. This is done by applying the so-called CatSim model which combines natural disaster risk and corresponding losses a government is exposed to with financial resources it has available to finance them. While only indicative due to data limitations our results can be interpreted as a warning call to not underestimate disaster risks that can realize any moment and that will be much more difficult to be efficiently responded to compared to the pre-Covid era. Especially the poor are now in a significant weaker position than before. We suggest some possible ways forward how to enable a more integrated perspective and to track progress of fiscal risks over time.