ЭКОНОМИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ РЫНКА МАЛОЭТАЖНОГО СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА РОСТОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Open Access

Abstract

На основе аппроксимации статистического ряда ввода малоэтажного жилья за 2002—2010 гг. сделан вывод о том, что для экономико-математического описания развития рынка малоэтажного жилья в Ростовской области предпочтительно использование модели линейного или экспоненциального приближения. Для развития модельных представлений, описывающих динамику развития строительства индивидуального жилья, выделены шесть важнейших факторов и проведен их статистический анализ. ; An effective resolution of the housing problem may consist in development and implementation of low-rise housing projects. Intensive development of the low-rise construction sector in the Rostov region needs the balance of supply and demand factors to be implemented in the effective legislation applicable to this market.A balance of supply and demand factors is feasible if methods of forecasting of the future trends of the low-rise housing market are developed and implemented. The authors have chosen the approximation method in the mode of Microsoft Word 2010 options as the problem solving vehicle.By approximating the statistical series of the low-rise housing market trends for 2002-2010, the authors have built a graphic dependence describing the housing construction market development pattern. Thereafter, the authors have concluded that the economic and mathematical description of the market of low-rise housing in the Rostov region is preferable in the form of a model of linear or exponential approximation.Statistical processing was made using the method of distribution of factors in the form of a radar chart employed to generate a visual image of the distribution of factors and the impact of each factor on the growth of the market of private housing in the Rostov region.